On the Model 3 waitlist, but seriously considering a Bolt (Lease? Buy? Wait?)

After test driving the Bolt, I'm fairly sold on it. I don't mind the look of the Bolt--it doesn't make me salivate like a Tesla, but dang is it going to be more useful. After some test driving, the seats are surprisingly narrow. I'm not a large guy and even I feel vaguely seat-pinched. It is truly mind-boggling how this got past all the engineering teams. And the car is fairly squirrely when punching it from a dead stop.

But I'm definitely considering one. Because it's June, I'm wondering if anyone has any insight on whether it's worth it to wait until... December?... and see if the 2018 model drives down the 2017 prices, and whether the Federal tax incentives will still be there in December. And why do I see ZEV Carb credits being talked about---what is a ZEV Carb credit, how does that relate to a Federal tax credit, and how does the Carb credit affect the price of the Bolt?

Also looking to ask current Leasers a) why they're leasing, b) if they're happy with their lease, and c) whether the term is negotiable (1 vs 2 years).

Lease is negotiable between 3 years and 4 years. There maybe shorter options, but I wasn't interested in them.
The lease is a fair deal. Not as good as GM has had in the past when lease rates were 0, but fair in today's economy.
There are dealer advantages in this lease so your dealer has room to negotiate so you might want to contact a few dealers in your area to see what they can do for you. There are also dealer add-ons like greater coverage. GM also has a national lease that involves a certain percentage being given up front. In any case, GM has always been flexible on turning in a leased car for another leased GM car. Granted that is probably the most expensive option. Also you don't get the Federal Rebate with the lease, but rather GM boosts the value of the car at the end of the lease by the Federal Rebate. This cuts your lease rate, but may complicate the early termination of any lease.

I'm on the Model 3 waiting list, had to turn in my Spark EV last month and at first thought I'd just wait for the Model 3.

But after driving the Bolt I decided it was more than good enough (and quite a step up from our much loved Spark EV), the lease was attractive compared with purchasing and it will give me time to decide whether the Model 3, when it comes out, is good enough to replace our remaining ICE with.

Everyone's situation is different but I see no reason to buy a Bolt vs leasing, particularly in a state that offers a rebate that applies to leases as well.

Tesla is now offering warrantied and fully reconditioned model S that have come off lease, and lots of them, for about the same as a Bolt Premium. Tesla is dropping prices aggressively. If the Model S isn't too big for your needs (too big for me), I'd offer that you should seriously consider one. You can get a 2013 Model S, fully reconditioned, free Supercharging for life, under 50,000 miles, with a 100K mile warranty, for $40,000 or so. The gotcha is that those earlier Teslas don't have the autopilot hardware. On the other hand, the seats don't inflict pain or burst at the seams.

If I had to spend $40,000 or so today, and I wasn't a small car kind of guy, I'd go for the used Tesla. And the deals will only get better as lease returns accelerate. Especially if you travel a lot - factor in the savings and convenience with free Supercharging.

https://www.tesla.com/used

I think I would only lease the car. I don't think the resale value is going to hold up due to brain dead engineers that approved the seats in this vehicle. On top of that, there is going to be several new all electric vehicles to choose from in three years.

The federal tax credit, state tax exemptions and rebates have no effect on carbon credits.

Carbon credits are an exchange program that a few states have mandated that allows manufactures to sell higher carbon producting products by selling off-setting low or zero carbon emitting products or buying carbon credits in the carbon credit market.

See the ZEV tutorial on how the carbon credit program applies to vehicles.
https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/zevtutorial/zevtutorial.htm

ScooterCT said:

Tesla is now offering warrantied and fully reconditioned model S that have come off lease, and lots of them, for about the same as a Bolt Premium. Tesla is dropping prices aggressively. If the Model S isn't too big for your needs (too big for me), I'd offer that you should seriously consider one.

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I'm tempted with this, as well, and have been checking the used pages. I'm fine with no Autopilot. Decisions....

Yes, the Model S is just too large for local errand running and the Bolt is just right.

No, supercharging doesn't yet exist for the vast majority of the US.

Yes, buying a first year of a new model is risky and buying new and paying near list price is the worst economic decision one can make; I did follow my own long standing dictum on either.

jack vines

PackardV8 said:

Yes, buying a first year of a new model is risky and buying new and paying near list price is the worst economic decision one can make; I did follow my own long standing dictum on either.

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You mean you did not follow it? Either way, you happy about the purchase?

Had a Tesla picked out, but remodeled the house. Darn. Put deposit on a Lucid but delivery is way out. Not waiting for a Model S. Saw the Bolt range and size and just went for it. First time in my many years didn't pay cash for a new car - 3 yrs lease and expecting things to progress in 3 years. Figured for the low payment, I could put up with it for 3 yrs. But nothing to put up with. Not a Tesla, but perfect for us. The seat doesn't seem to bother the person that remodeled her house, I find it mildly annoying. I'm sure I will find a solution.

fgurnee01 said:

expecting things to progress in 3 years

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I hear this all the time, but really I don't personally expect much progress per se. I expect Chevy to have many competitors at the $40k/200+mile point, but they will not be wildly better than the Bolt. It will take a full product cycle (6 years or so) until I expect the next step function of progress.

In the meantime, enjoy your car.

flyboy said:

ScooterCT said:

Tesla is now offering warrantied and fully reconditioned model S that have come off lease, and lots of them, for about the same as a Bolt Premium. Tesla is dropping prices aggressively. If the Model S isn't too big for your needs (too big for me), I'd offer that you should seriously consider one.

Click to expand...

I'm tempted with this, as well, and have been checking the used pages. I'm fine with no Autopilot. Decisions....

Click to expand...

The downside to going with a used Tesla is that you don't get the federal tax credit, or possibly any local incentives. I found several Model S cars that were between $44K and $50K with low miles on them (less than 50K). A fully optioned Bolt in California goes for ~$48K after taxes and registration, but you get $7500 back from the feds, $2500 from the state, and $500 back from PG&E in my area. That cuts the cost down to $37.5K when all is said and done.

That's one of several reasons not to buy a used Tesla. Others include you lose the latest fixes and hardware. You don't know how the first owner may have mistreated the battery. And so on. And it's really hard to buy a used S when the Model 3 is so close and is so much more "right-sized" for most of us. And of course, a zillion other BEVs are appearing in the very near future.

Having said that, I'm hoping used Model S prices keep dropping into the low #30K range. It seems logical that they will, as an increasing volume of off-lease Model S vehicles come into Tesla inventory. I think the major improvements were in late 2014. So I figure those cars will be coming online in about 6 months. Right now you see mostly 2012 and 2013 vehicles at the low end ($40,000). The idea of picking up an autopilot-capable late 2014 Tesla model S in one year for $40,000 is pretty appealing.

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