d2170
Posts: 47
Joined: Fri Dec 02, 2016 7:53 pm

Re: Anything on the 2018 model year?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:28 pm

Bolt has a range of 238 miles because of the LG Chem battery pack. I wonder when we'll see other automakers use LG Chem battery packs to offer long-range electric cars. Has LG Chem and/or other automakers made any announcements yet ?

DucRider
Posts: 599
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:25 pm

Re: Anything on the 2018 model year?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:12 pm

d2170 wrote:Bolt has a range of 238 miles because of the LG Chem battery pack. I wonder when we'll see other automakers use LG Chem battery packs to offer long-range electric cars. Has LG Chem and/or other automakers made any announcements yet ?

The battery is just one piece that allows the Bolt to get 238 miles. The capacity and style - prismatic/pouch cells - and not the manufacturer is the primary factor.

A quick list that LG supplies batteries for:
Chevy Volt
Cadillac ELR
Chevy Spark EV
Renault Twizzy
Ford Focus Electric
Renault ZOE
Renault Fluence
Volvo XC90
Volvo V60

There are likely others, and some speculation that the 2018 LEAF will use LG since Nissan got out of the battery business.
Gary

2014 Honda Fit EV - lease ends Jan 2019

d2170
Posts: 47
Joined: Fri Dec 02, 2016 7:53 pm

Re: Anything on the 2018 model year?

Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:59 pm

These are the numbers to beat going forward, and it's a moving target:

Model 3 extended range $44k 310 miles: $142 per mile of range
Chevy Bolt $37.5k 238 miles: $157 per mile of range
Model 3 standard range $35k 220 miles: $160 per mile of range

Everyone else is above $240 per mile of range.

I suspect it's going to be very hard for all other automakers to beat Tesla going forward. And don't forget experts estimate GM loses about $8,000 per Bolt sold. Tesla will also have negative gross margins with the Model 3 in 2017, but towards 2H 2018 Model 3's gross margin will turn positive (they are aiming for 25% GM with volume production).

source: http://insideevs.com/310-mile-tesla-mod ... comes-new/

winterescape
Posts: 158
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 1:35 pm
Location: Upstate, NY

Re: Anything on the 2018 model year?

Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:14 pm

Over @ GM Authority they speculate the lack of detail on order guide for the 2018 Bolt indicates that changes are coming. I am not so sure if that is wishful thinking or just that the guy who puts together the order guide was out on vacation and did not get it finished ;)

See all the speculation here...

http://gmauthority.com/blog/2017/09/wha ... ctric-car/

DucRider
Posts: 599
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:25 pm

Re: Anything on the 2018 model year?

Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:28 pm

d2170 wrote:And don't forget experts estimate GM loses about $8,000 per Bolt sold. Tesla will also have negative gross margins with the Model 3 in 2017, but towards 2H 2018 Model 3's gross margin will turn positive (they are aiming for 25% GM with volume production).

source: http://insideevs.com/310-mile-tesla-mod ... comes-new/

So unsubstantiated rumors from unnamed sources are now attributable to "experts"? Isn't the internet a wonderful thing? Repeat something often enough and it becomes a "fact". Please link to the "expert" and how that number is calculated (Does it include R&D costs? Amortized over how long? Is is strictly Labor & Materials? etc).

The article you linked to has no discussion at all on margins. Perhaps you meant it to be before your speculation on profit/loss so people would understand it was only the source for the $/mi numbers?
Gary

2014 Honda Fit EV - lease ends Jan 2019

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1160
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 5:25 pm
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Anything on the 2018 model year?

Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:35 pm

DucRider wrote:Isn't the internet a wonderful thing? Repeat something often enough and it becomes a "fact".


It is an interesting phenomenon for sure. I had heard it as $9k, but I never trusted that number anyway. Who knows what it really means, if anything.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

winterescape
Posts: 158
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 1:35 pm
Location: Upstate, NY

Re: Anything on the 2018 model year?

Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:08 pm

DucRider wrote:
d2170 wrote:And don't forget experts estimate GM loses about $8,000 per Bolt sold. Tesla will also have negative gross margins with the Model 3 in 2017, but towards 2H 2018 Model 3's gross margin will turn positive (they are aiming for 25% GM with volume production).

source: http://insideevs.com/310-mile-tesla-mod ... comes-new/

So unsubstantiated rumors from unnamed sources are now attributable to "experts"? Isn't the internet a wonderful thing? Repeat something often enough and it becomes a "fact". Please link to the "expert" and how that number is calculated (Does it include R&D costs? Amortized over how long? Is is strictly Labor & Materials? etc).

The article you linked to has no discussion at all on margins. Perhaps you meant it to be before your speculation on profit/loss so people would understand it was only the source for the $/mi numbers?


I think one source of the approx. $8K / car traces back to the UBS margin report published 3/18/2017 http://www.advantagelithium.com/_resources/pdf/UBS-Article.pdf

"We estimate GM loses $7.4k (EBIT) with every Bolt sold today"

The estimates are based on UBS performing a complete vehicle teardown of the Bolt and they infer the Tesla M3 costs from the Bolt components. I do however agree that the linked article fails to reference this report and only summarizes the Bloomberg data

boltage
Posts: 451
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 4:50 am

Re: Anything on the 2018 model year?

Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:36 pm

d2170 wrote:These are the numbers to beat going forward, and it's a moving target:

Model 3 extended range $44k 310 miles: $142 per mile of range
Chevy Bolt $37.5k 238 miles: $157 per mile of range
Model 3 standard range $35k 220 miles: $160 per mile of range

Everyone else is above $240 per mile of range.

I suspect it's going to be very hard for all other automakers to beat Tesla going forward. And don't forget experts estimate GM loses about $8,000 per Bolt sold. Tesla will also have negative gross margins with the Model 3 in 2017, but towards 2H 2018 Model 3's gross margin will turn positive (they are aiming for 25% GM with volume production).

source: http://insideevs.com/310-mile-tesla-mod ... comes-new/


Base price of the Model 3 is $36,200 including the $1,200 delivery charge.

Presumably, Tesla is hoping that most buyers will pick at least some of the expensive options, rather than buy the $36,200 base Model 3 with no options (which is a good deal for the buyer, but probably not so much for Tesla). Here are the options:

$9,000 long range battery
$5,000 Premium Upgrade Package (heated seats, leather, glass roof, etc.)
$5,000 Enhanced Autopilot
$3,000 future full self driving capability (requires Enhanced Autopilot)
$1,500 19" (instead of 18") wheels
$1,000 any color other than black

iletric
Posts: 172
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 4:50 am

Re: Anything on the 2018 model year?

Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:16 pm

It's going to be very interesting going forward what the Bolt sales will be like now that Nissan blinked and won't be selling 60 kWh copies until next year, only the 40 kWh model.

Will people go for Leaf with 150 range vs. Bolt with 238, i.e. price vs. range, and brand vs. brand.

DucRider
Posts: 599
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:25 pm

Re: Anything on the 2018 model year?

Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:44 am

iletric wrote:It's going to be very interesting going forward what the Bolt sales will be like now that Nissan blinked and won't be selling 60 kWh copies until next year, only the 40 kWh model.

Will people go for Leaf with 150 range vs. Bolt with 238, i.e. price vs. range, and brand vs. brand.

So much depends on individuals priorities, climate, preferences.

What's the hot button?
Range
Price
Power Seats with lumbar support
Heat Pump
Thermal Management
Built in Nav
Adaptive Cruise Control
Service available within a reasonable distance/time
Supercharger vs CHAdeMO vs CCS
"Sport" vs "comfort" suspension
Sedan vs Hatchback
Brand loyalty/desirability


Shaping up to be something for (nearly) everyone (some people will always find something to complain about :roll: )
Gary

2014 Honda Fit EV - lease ends Jan 2019

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