So are we all going to end up buying our cars after our leases are up?

[SparkE]

There's more than just raw specs and price to consider, though. It sounds like the Kona & Niro might have availability issues (which is also true of the Bolt in some markets), and even the new Leaf has a questionable reputation in terms of it's battery longevity. The market is still too thinly supplied for EVs to be truly fungible.

True. However, in the context of "are we all going to end up buying our cars after our leases are up?", there WILL be multiple choices available (depending on where you live) and that *should* drive down the price of used electrics of a similar class (around $38K, 200-ish miles of range). Thus, at lease end it might be preferable to buy a used one instead of paying the contractual residual on yours. Or, use 'comparables' to dicker with the finance company to get a lower price on yours. Or look at new ones to lease.

[Pigwich]

So in regards to "dickering" with the finance company, I'd like to know if anybody has historically had any success on this front. I asked when my Spark EV lease was up and they told me immediately that there was absolutely no negotiating whatsoever and that I could either turn it in or pay full asking price only. It's probably something to do with being able to write it off as a loss or not. The bank was Ally, who apparently are horrible, although my experience was neutral. This time it's GMAC financing. Also neutral, but I'm on autopay, so it had better be goddamn neutral.

The idea of buying some hog of a used LEAF isn't lost on me however. My commute is short and extremely predictable, but unfortunately it would mean family adventures up in the mountains would need to be suspended for that period.

[GetOffYourGas]

Larry Kudlow, director of the White House National Economic Council, told reporters that electric car subsidies "will all end in the near future," adding 2020 or 2021 when asked for a timeline.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/automotive/fuelefficient/ct-trump-end-electric-vehicle-subsidies-20181204-story.html

This will be largely true even if nothing changes. Most manufacturers will have sold 200k EVs by 2021 (the end of which is early 3 years away). Those that haven't aren't really serious about EVs anyway.

[SparkE]

Larry Kudlow, director of the White House National Economic Council, told reporters that electric car subsidies "will all end in the near future," adding 2020 or 2021 when asked for a timeline.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/automotive/fuelefficient/ct-trump-end-electric-vehicle-subsidies-20181204-story.html

This will be largely true even if nothing changes. Most manufacturers will have sold 200k EVs by 2021 (the end of which is early 3 years away). Those that haven't aren't really serious about EVs anyway.

I don't know about that. VW (for example) is going pretty whole-hog into electric (or so they say), but haven't really been serious up until now - they have less than 15K e-cars sold (in the US). Kia and Hyundai have also sold very few electrics (because *up until now* they haven't really been in the game in the US - but will have 4 all-electrics for sale in the US this year: Ioniq, Soul, Niro, Kona). And I don't know what Honda is going to do (only ~25K sold); they have one of the best (IMO) PHEVs on the market today - 45 miles of electric range, comfort like a Camry/Avalon.

Sales comparable to the Bolt (~20K/yr) would give everybody I mentioned about 8 years to hit the limit.

[SeanNelson]

There's more than just raw specs and price to consider, though. It sounds like the Kona & Niro might have availability issues (which is also true of the Bolt in some markets), and even the new Leaf has a questionable reputation in terms of it's battery longevity. The market is still too thinly supplied for EVs to be truly fungible.

True. However, in the context of "are we all going to end up buying our cars after our leases are up?", there WILL be multiple choices available (depending on where you live) and that *should* drive down the price of used electrics of a similar class (around $38K, 200-ish miles of range). Thus, at lease end it might be preferable to buy a used one instead of paying the contractual residual on yours. Or, use 'comparables' to dicker with the finance company to get a lower price on yours. Or look at new ones to lease.

What will drive down the price of used EVs is the quantity of new models available relative to demand. Variety is nice, but if there's a shortage of numbers then it doesn't really matter how many models there are that you can't actually buy.

VW is making some very credible noises about mass production, potentially on a scale that will dwarf Tesla. That's the kind of thing that could have a serious impact on prices. But we'll have to wait a year or two to find out.

[BoltEV]

Yes: I think I will get hosed to "take it or leave it" of my residual of $25K next January; when there will be NO onslaught of other used Bolt EVs coming back to GM Financial, since I purchased mine "first one off the lot!"

The only advantage is that I have 20,000 miles left for 11 months but I will probably do some serious interstate driving just to burn those up and not waste them.

[sparkyps]

Why buy at lease end (my residual is $25k+) when you can buy a brand new one for under $30k and get the full tax credit right now?

I'm looking at buying one right now even though my lease isn't up for a year. Under $20k with California rebate and it will keep me from going over my 45k lease mileage

[SparkE]

If you live in CA you must own/drive the vehicle for a certain amount of time to get the rebate. (It used to be 30 months.) If you sell/return the car before that time, you have to tell CARB and give the rebate back. Now, if you didn't know that you could get the CA rebate for a lease, so you didn't apply, then no worries. Also, they changed the law last year so that the amount of rebate MAY depend on your income (poor people get more money). Also, if you make a LOT of money, you have to choose between the rebate and the HOV sticker. (If they haven't changed the law yet again.)

I believe that there is no requirement to keep the vehicle for any specific amount of time for the fed tax credit (which you wouldn't have gotten anyways, since you are leasing). If you didn't pay a huge amount up front (you'll never get the up-front payment back from GM), then maybe you can manage to find somebody who might like to take over the lease. Or, maybe you can find somebody who will give you a prorated 33% of your "drive off" fee. You will have to pay a "lease transfer fee", but you would avoid paying the "lease return fee" (which is called something else, but there is a fee).

And the fed tax credit is a CREDIT, not a rebate. If your total tax bill is (say) $6000, then that's all that you get back - the credit only offsets taxes and it can't be carried forward. Note, I'm not saying that your *balance still to pay* has to be $7500. If you are responsible for $8000 for the entire year, and have already paid $7000, normally owing $1000 - you would instead get a refund from the IRS (your bill was $8K, you have a tax credit of $7.5K, total tax becomes $500, you already paid $7000, so you would get a refund check for $6500).

If you don't make enough money to have a total tax bill of at least $7500 :
- sell some stock (if you can do that)
- open a Roth IRA, and move money out of your traditional IRA into the Roth (go talk to an accountant about this option)
- talk your boss into giving you a bonus

In either case, "make" enough so your total tax bill would be (say) $7600, so you can take the full tax credit.

[SparkE]

Why buy at lease end (my residual is $25k+) when you can buy a brand new one for under $30k and get the full tax credit right now?

There are actually quite a few dealerships in the greater San Jose area that are offering about $8000 of MSRP recently. They are the base model, with DCFC, and about no other package. Still, as stated, $30-$31K before subtracting tax credit and CA rebate is still a pretty good deal.

[BoltEV]

Why buy at lease end (my residual is $25k+) when you can buy a brand new one for under $30k and get the full tax credit right now?

I'm looking at buying one right now even though my lease isn't up for a year. Under $20k with California rebate and it will keep me from going over my 45k lease mileage

Actually I am looking to make a few casual trips during the next 9-1/2 months as I still have 20K left on my 45K mileage! Not driving Uber this time around (I did with my Volt) caused the overage.

But come next January (or sooner like sparkyps), I am also thinking that a "good deal" is far preferable to paying this obviously high residual.

One problem: I probably will not be in the position to take advantage of the $7,500 federal tax credit (now or then), so I am hopeful that 3rd party leasors will enter the market for that purpose and reflect that credit in the monthly payments (as opposed to GM Financial, which put most of it in the residual).

Any ideas?