SparkE
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Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2016 5:53 am
Location: SF Bay Area

Re: So are we all going to end up buying our cars after our leases are up?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:08 pm

SeanNelson wrote:There's more than just raw specs and price to consider, though. It sounds like the Kona & Niro might have availability issues (which is also true of the Bolt in some markets), and even the new Leaf has a questionable reputation in terms of it's battery longevity. The market is still too thinly supplied for EVs to be truly fungible.


True. However, in the context of "are we all going to end up buying our cars after our leases are up?", there WILL be multiple choices available (depending on where you live) and that *should* drive down the price of used electrics of a similar class (around $38K, 200-ish miles of range). Thus, at lease end it might be preferable to buy a used one instead of paying the contractual residual on yours. Or, use 'comparables' to dicker with the finance company to get a lower price on yours. Or look at new ones to lease.

Pigwich
Posts: 224
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2017 2:01 pm
Location: Southern California

Re: So are we all going to end up buying our cars after our leases are up?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:39 pm

So in regards to "dickering" with the finance company, I'd like to know if anybody has historically had any success on this front. I asked when my Spark EV lease was up and they told me immediately that there was absolutely no negotiating whatsoever and that I could either turn it in or pay full asking price only. It's probably something to do with being able to write it off as a loss or not. The bank was Ally, who apparently are horrible, although my experience was neutral. This time it's GMAC financing. Also neutral, but I'm on autopay, so it had better be goddamn neutral.

The idea of buying some hog of a used LEAF isn't lost on me however. My commute is short and extremely predictable, but unfortunately it would mean family adventures up in the mountains would need to be suspended for that period.
(´・(oo)・`)

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1124
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 5:25 pm
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: So are we all going to end up buying our cars after our leases are up?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:17 pm

BoltEV wrote:
Larry Kudlow, director of the White House National Economic Council, told reporters that electric car subsidies "will all end in the near future," adding 2020 or 2021 when asked for a timeline.


https://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/automotive/fuelefficient/ct-trump-end-electric-vehicle-subsidies-20181204-story.html


This will be largely true even if nothing changes. Most manufacturers will have sold 200k EVs by 2021 (the end of which is early 3 years away). Those that haven't aren't really serious about EVs anyway.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

SparkE
Moderator
Posts: 1051
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2016 5:53 am
Location: SF Bay Area

Re: So are we all going to end up buying our cars after our leases are up?

Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:07 am

GetOffYourGas wrote:
BoltEV wrote:
Larry Kudlow, director of the White House National Economic Council, told reporters that electric car subsidies "will all end in the near future," adding 2020 or 2021 when asked for a timeline.


https://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/automotive/fuelefficient/ct-trump-end-electric-vehicle-subsidies-20181204-story.html


This will be largely true even if nothing changes. Most manufacturers will have sold 200k EVs by 2021 (the end of which is early 3 years away). Those that haven't aren't really serious about EVs anyway.


I don't know about that. VW (for example) is going pretty whole-hog into electric (or so they say), but haven't really been serious up until now - they have less than 15K e-cars sold (in the US). Kia and Hyundai have also sold very few electrics (because *up until now* they haven't really been in the game in the US - but will have 4 all-electrics for sale in the US this year: Ioniq, Soul, Niro, Kona). And I don't know what Honda is going to do (only ~25K sold); they have one of the best (IMO) PHEVs on the market today - 45 miles of electric range, comfort like a Camry/Avalon.

Sales comparable to the Bolt (~20K/yr) would give everybody I mentioned about 8 years to hit the limit.

SeanNelson
Posts: 1409
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2016 2:43 am
Location: Vancouver, BC

Re: So are we all going to end up buying our cars after our leases are up?

Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:17 am

SparkE wrote:
SeanNelson wrote:There's more than just raw specs and price to consider, though. It sounds like the Kona & Niro might have availability issues (which is also true of the Bolt in some markets), and even the new Leaf has a questionable reputation in terms of it's battery longevity. The market is still too thinly supplied for EVs to be truly fungible.


True. However, in the context of "are we all going to end up buying our cars after our leases are up?", there WILL be multiple choices available (depending on where you live) and that *should* drive down the price of used electrics of a similar class (around $38K, 200-ish miles of range). Thus, at lease end it might be preferable to buy a used one instead of paying the contractual residual on yours. Or, use 'comparables' to dicker with the finance company to get a lower price on yours. Or look at new ones to lease.

What will drive down the price of used EVs is the quantity of new models available relative to demand. Variety is nice, but if there's a shortage of numbers then it doesn't really matter how many models there are that you can't actually buy.

VW is making some very credible noises about mass production, potentially on a scale that will dwarf Tesla. That's the kind of thing that could have a serious impact on prices. But we'll have to wait a year or two to find out.

BoltEV
Posts: 157
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:58 am

Re: So are we all going to end up buying our cars after our leases are up?

Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:09 am

Yes: I think I will get hosed to "take it or leave it" of my residual of $25K next January; when there will be NO onslaught of other used Bolt EVs coming back to GM Financial, since I purchased mine "first one off the lot!"

The only advantage is that I have 20,000 miles left for 11 months but I will probably do some serious interstate driving just to burn those up and not waste them.

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