jeff3948
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Is GM committed to manufacturing the Bolt in the Trump Era

Sun Feb 05, 2017 4:48 pm

Is GM committed to continuing to manufacture the Bolt in the Trump era? I hope so, because I want a Bolt.

SeanNelson
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Re: Is GM committed to manufacturing the Bolt in the Trump Era

Sun Feb 05, 2017 5:49 pm

jeff3948 wrote:Is GM committed to continuing to manufacture the Bolt in the Trump era? I hope so, because I want a Bolt.

Trump is not forever, and the rest of the world is not going to stand still. GM is a global company that plans to be in business for a long time, so I doubt that they're going to drop the ball now.

MichaelLAX

Re: Is GM committed to manufacturing the Bolt in the Trump Era

Sun Feb 05, 2017 7:29 pm

I asked myself the same question after the election when GM announced that only California and Oregon would receive Bolt EV deliveries in 2016.

I question whether the Bolt EV will be assigned to the category of a "compliance" car during the Trump Era.

What state are you in?

boltage
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Re: Is GM committed to manufacturing the Bolt in the Trump Era

Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:35 pm

My guess is that market demand and supplier capacity will determine whether it sells at compliance levels or significantly greater.

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roundpeg
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Re: Is GM committed to manufacturing the Bolt in the Trump Era

Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:34 pm

I believe EVs are here to stay, but getting them above the 1% of installed base mark is likely to become more difficult over the coming years.

The first policy likely to be targeted is the federal tax credit. It is due to sunset over the next couple of years anyway, but I would not be the least bit surprised if it is eliminated sooner. The second target it likely to be the CAFE standards. If the fleet average is lowered, the automakers will have less incentive to build EVs, or any fuel-efficient cars for that matter. The third target is likely to be the California cap and trade program, which drives the rebates for EV ownership in this state (it is was under legal attack before the election).

The fourth target may very well be the waiver granted to California decades ago allowing the state (and others that follow CA's lead) to set higher standards for air quality than the nation. The waiver is not popular with automakers but has held through Republican and Democratic presidents but it may not survive this one. The fifth target is pushing domestic fossil fuel development. If oil prices remain depressed the market for all energy-efficient vehicles can be held back.

The sixth target is trade with Mexico. Automakers assemble many of their most fuel-efficient and least-profitable vehicles south of the border. If Trump succeeds in starting a trade war with Mexico, carmakers could very well find manufacturing these cars to be even less profitable than they do now. If the CAFE standards are lowered, then the automakers won't complain so much about a trade war until we get into the inevitable retaliation phase, at which point the damage will already be done.

Bottom line, compliance cars are only made when they are complying with something. If the compliance goals are eliminated or reduced, the automakers are going to recalibrate their market approach.

WetEV
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Re: Is GM committed to manufacturing the Bolt in the Trump Era

Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:50 pm

jeff3948 wrote:Is GM committed to continuing to manufacture the Bolt in the Trump era? I hope so, because I want a Bolt.


I'd suspect that the answer is that GM is likely to continue to develop and manufacture electric cars. I can't know, of course.

Electric cars are nicer than gasoline cars for commuting. Start every day with a full tank, no annoying visits to the gas station, more responsive to drive, smoother and quieter... As the cost of batteries and associated components falls, electric cars will become cheaper to run than gasoline cars everywhere, as they already are in many places, even without subsidies. Less air pollution, which matters a lot in big cities. Less maintenance and likely to be more reliable. The future looks electric.

Electric cars are over 1.5% of sales in China, the largest car market. The world's best selling electric car is Chinese, the Geely Emgrand EV. As electric cars are improving faster than ICEs, the fraction of cars that are electric seems likely to continue to increase. If we don't develop, we will be importing from those that do develop.

GM needs to be there. Trump or no Trump. GM with the EV1 had a big head start. They chose to waste that advantage. One hopes they learned from that mistake.
#49 on the LEAF 100 mile club.
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Can't sit in a Bolt seat, hoping for better soon.
Or perhaps a Buick version? Buick Electra 225???

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roundpeg
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Re: Is GM committed to manufacturing the Bolt in the Trump Era

Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:44 pm

WetEV wrote:Electric cars are over 1.5% of sales in China, the largest car market. The world's best selling electric car is Chinese, the Geely Emgrand EV. As electric cars are improving faster than ICEs, the fraction of cars that are electric seems likely to continue to increase. If we don't develop, we will be importing from those that do develop.


That's the likely scenario. Renewable energy in all of its forms and applications will be pursued aggressively by most of the world as a matter of environmental and economic policy. The U.S. will go in the other direction and be left behind.

dandrewk
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Re: Is GM committed to manufacturing the Bolt in the Trump Era

Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:00 am

We will know a lot more in the coming year. If Bolt sales continue to be awesome, and with the Tesla M3 hitting the market, the era of affordable, long range EVs will be upon us.

Success breeds imitation and ingenuity. Other car manufacturers will follow. Heck, even Toyota has caved in to the inevitability of EVs. All of this trumps Trump's desire to set up back decades.

LeftieBiker
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Re: Is GM committed to manufacturing the Bolt in the Trump Era

Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:45 am

If the federal tax credit is ended, then I'd expect GM to try to suppress Bolt leasing, as they'd lose $5k more per leased car even if they dropped the $2500 CCR. Then the question becomes "How many people will buy a Bolt at these MSRPs with no incentive? It would likely become the "Tesla for the Upper Middle Class."
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roundpeg
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Re: Is GM committed to manufacturing the Bolt in the Trump Era

Mon Feb 06, 2017 1:51 am

You're not going to make much sense of this using leasing math. I paid cash for my Bolt. GM got $43k from me. I get $10k of that back from the federal and state governments but GM still gets the same number of dollars. Effectively this is a profit pass-through to GM. Take away those incentives and now GM has to either sell the car for a net higher price to consumers, or accept less profit. It is unclear if they would find many takers at a net higher price or if they'd find this car worth manufacturing if they had to sell it for the current net price.

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