Automakers waiting until 2020 for their EV reveals

[m16charged]

We are seeing more and more articles like the one below. 2020 seems to be 4 years behind when looking at the success of the Chevy Bolt. I see the point of "sharing" the technology and not having to correct any mistakes of some of the first electric vehicles for the masses but imo it could also hold these companies back from being a major player in the EV market until they come up with something spectacular. Perhaps that is the plan to wait and only put out something spectacular

http://www.motortrend.com/news/report-toyota-considers-long-range-electric-vehicles/



Toyota wants to take you further and is considering long-range electric vehicles by 2020, according to recent reports.

Automotive News cites the Nikkei Asian Review for the recent EV buzz. Up until now, Toyota’s strategy has been focused on short-range hybrids and funny-looking hydrogen fuel cell vehicles like the Mirai.

The Nikkei also speculates that Toyota wants to start production quickly and is considering an electric SUV with a range of nearly 200 miles for the expanding market.

Friendlier EV rules in the U.S. and China, as well as stiffer competition from Tesla and others, are said to be the root of Toyota’s change in strategy.

The first-generation Prius hybrid made its debut nearly 20 years ago and the nameplate has been a tremendous success for the company. All-electric cars, crossovers, and trucks seem like a logical step for Toyota to stay competitive.

Toyota currently makes hybrid versions of the Avalon, Camry, Highlander, and RAV4. An all-electric version of the Camry or Highlander would make a lot of sense and could hold off the competition for now. Toyota previously sold an all-electric version of the RAV4 using a drivetrain developed by Tesla.

There is no official word from Toyota regarding the report, but we hope to hear more news about it later this month at the Los Angeles auto show.

 

[voltage]

2020 will be a magical year. Every forecast is for 2020

 

[roundpeg]

2020 will be a magical year. Every forecast is for 2020

When is the best time to buy a new technology product? Next year.

The same advice will apply next year.

 

[new2evs]

2020 will be a magical year. Every forecast is for 2020

When is the best time to buy a new technology product? Next year.

The same advice will apply next year.

Good point

 

[michael]

I've learned not to wait for something better.
I got three good years out of my Focus Electric, and I expect to get three great years out of my Bolt before I get whatever is best in 2020

 

[voltage]

2020 will be a magical year. Every forecast is for 2020

When is the best time to buy a new technology product? Next year.

The same advice will apply next year.

So true

 

[GetOffYourGas]

I'm sure a lot of them are hoping that the political climate will have shifted by 2020. They already petitioned the president-elect to reduce or remove CAFE requirements, for example. Then they won't have to build any at all.

 

[oilerlord]

I've learned not to wait for something better.
I got three good years out of my Focus Electric, and I expect to get three great years out of my Bolt before I get whatever is best in 2020

My approach to buying an EV is like buying a new cell phone. The cool shiny gotta-have-it phone costs $400. The 2-year old formerly-cool model goes for $99. For me, that won't change in 2020.

 

[WetEV]

I'm sure a lot of them are hoping that the political climate will have shifted by 2020. They already petitioned the president-elect to reduce or remove CAFE requirements, for example. Then they won't have to build any at all.

CARB will still exist. If we take the Republicans at their statements that pollution control goes to the states, then CARB isn't threatened.

Even if CARB didn't exist, there is now a market for electric cars that would pay extra for the better quality transportation. It will take longer, but electric cars will disrupt the car business. Lead the market or get run over.

 

[WetEV]

I've learned not to wait for something better.
I got three good years out of my Focus Electric, and I expect to get three great years out of my Bolt before I get whatever is best in 2020

My approach to buying an EV is like buying a new cell phone. The cool shiny gotta-have-it phone costs $400. The 2-year old formerly-cool model goes for $99. For me, that won't change in 2020.

That's why I bought my first Leaf in 2012. It was cool, shiny gotta-have-it, but I know enough to wait.

 

[oilerlord]

Even if CARB didn't exist, there is now a market for electric cars that would pay extra for the better quality transportation. It will take longer, but electric cars will disrupt the car business.

Yeah, not convinced about that one. I'll stipulate that you and I are big fans of EV's, but the overall market for electric cars is nearly microscopic. Only about 0.6% of car buyers this year will choose electric. EV's still require an incubator to exist, and without CARB and CAFE the chance that electric cars will "disrupt" the car business is pretty much zero - especially if Ford, GM, and others aren't forced through regulations to build them. Even if 400,000+ Model 3's hit the road by 2020, the market share needle will have barely moved.

Lead the market or get run over.

Tesla leads the EV market, but they are still a very small fish in a very large pond. They are in no position (financially or otherwise) to "run over" anyone, and if they don't start showing meaningful ROI , they will be the ones that get run over.

 

[WetEV]

Only about 0.6% of car buyers this year will choose electric.

Still under 1% for year, but was over 1% for November for all PEVs. Low gas prices will not last forever.

A city range 24kWh BEV at $145 per kWh would cost $3500 for the battery pack, and about the same or less for the rest of the car. That's not much of a premium for a car that is just nicer to drive, and will likely save that much or more in gasoline. Eventual market size is maybe 10 percent of total car market, but a reduced fraction of the market seems likely with no incentives . Subsidies and CARB matter more in this market. I'd expect most/all compliance cars to end, but BMW, Nissan and perhaps Ford to continue. VW maybe, for PR value.

Tesla end with raw power as the selling point is also small market, but solid. Might be owned by Tesla, or other companies might take some or all over if Tesla fails, such as Porsche/Audi. Yes, Tesla gets money selling CARB credits, but the Model S could sell for a bit more, and battery costs are falling. Tesla makes a Model S for about $80k and sells it for $100k. Tesla is losing money by trying to expand rapidly. High risk high reward strategy. Time will tell, but is a market for high performance cars.

PHEVs like Volt will do OK as well.

Wife wants a PHEV. A convertible in yellow. Ok, small market. But she can hope.

 

[oilerlord]

Tesla end with raw power as the selling point is also small market, but solid. Time will tell, but is a market for high performance cars.

Tesla is less dependent on selling CARB credits then they used to be, and CAFE is a non-issue. If federal tax credits ended, it wouldn't be a deal breaker - people would still buy them. Just like Bentley, Tesla is a boutique brand with a loyal following. I hope Tesla finds a way to make the EV business profitable. If/when that happens, you may indeed find niche vehicles like a yellow convertible Porsche Boxster PHEV.

 

[JupiterMoon]

Lease and don't worry about it.