Dgodfrey
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Re: Tesla Model 3 - Specs released

Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:22 pm

gbobman wrote:Also, no full federal rebate for this one. They've already sold over the 200,000 limit. Not sure what range they are in now.

Thank you for the link, it helped me solidify that I bought the correct car for me.


No they haven't sold over the 200k limit. They are about 70k short and based on the ramp up, should reach the 200k US registered Teslas about spring 2018. That would mean they have until fall 2018 to deliver as many as possible to get the full $7,500 and then it drops in half for 6 months and half again for another 6 months. So basically, for the next 24 months, owners will qualify for something.

gpsman
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Re: Tesla Model 3 - Specs released

Tue Aug 01, 2017 12:02 am

It has been widely reported that the base model 3 ($35,000 MSRP) costs Tesla $41,000 to make.

This is like the Black Friday "loss leaders" to get you into the store, where you will most likely buy more stuff.

The TV news here in San Jose, CA, next door to Tesla headquarters is reporting, and rightly so, that very few, if any, Tesla Model 3's will be sold at $35,000.

If you insist on ordering one, your car will be a bottom priority, and you will get a very distant build date. Tesla has no incentive to sell this car to you, and every incentive NOT to.

They MUST sell the auto-pilot, etc. that costs $500 to manufacture, at $5000 to you, to get into the black.

P.S. Everyone here considers a Bolt without a $750 DCFC as un-resellable. A base Model 3 will therefore be worse than the black plague. People will laugh you out of town.

boltage
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Re: Tesla Model 3 - Specs released

Tue Aug 01, 2017 3:39 am

gpsman wrote:P.S. Everyone here considers a Bolt without a $750 DCFC as un-resellable. A base Model 3 will therefore be worse than the black plague. People will laugh you out of town.


Not sure why a base Model 3 with no options would be the black plague (other than it will have black paint, since black is the only non-extra-cost color). The base Model 3 with no options is a well featured car, with 220 mile range, Supercharging, 120V and 240V EVSEs included, rear camera parking aid, and automatic emergency braking included.

But obviously, Tesla is hoping / expecting that most new buyers will go for at least some of the $5,000 luxury trimmings, $9,000 310 mile battery, $5,000 Enhanced Autopilot, $3,000 future full self-driving, $1,000 paint color other than black, and/or $1,500 19" wheels. Check all of those, and you have a $60,700 car instead of a $36,200 car (including delivery charge).

DarrenDonovan
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Re: Tesla Model 3 - Specs released

Tue Aug 01, 2017 8:18 am

The concern with a Tesla, is the poor build quality, and hugely overwhelmed service centers to fix said quality issues. And the months long backlog to get parts for your car due to Tesla monopoly. And that's just for the S and X, the 3 will make it much worse. Model S and X buyers are mostly early adopters and have given Tesla much slack, Model 3 buyers are more "average Joes" and will not accept excuses.
2017 Volt
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Other ICE cars.

gpsman
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Re: Tesla Model 3 - Specs released

Tue Aug 01, 2017 9:45 am

Oh, delivery charge is extra on a Tesla? It was included in the advertised price of a Bolt.

+1 for Chevy

boltage wrote:
But obviously, Tesla is hoping / expecting that most new buyers will go for at least some of the $5,000 luxury trimmings, $9,000 310 mile battery, $5,000 Enhanced Autopilot, $3,000 future full self-driving, $1,000 paint color other than black, and/or $1,500 19" wheels. Check all of those, and you have a $60,700 car instead of a $36,200 car (including delivery charge).

Dgodfrey
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Re: Tesla Model 3 - Specs released

Tue Aug 01, 2017 5:04 pm

gpsman wrote:It has been widely reported that the base model 3 ($35,000 MSRP) costs Tesla $41,000 to make.

This is like the Black Friday "loss leaders" to get you into the store, where you will most likely buy more stuff.

The TV news here in San Jose, CA, next door to Tesla headquarters is reporting, and rightly so, that very few, if any, Tesla Model 3's will be sold at $35,000.

If you insist on ordering one, your car will be a bottom priority, and you will get a very distant build date. Tesla has no incentive to sell this car to you, and every incentive NOT to.

They MUST sell the auto-pilot, etc. that costs $500 to manufacture, at $5000 to you, to get into the black.

P.S. Everyone here considers a Bolt without a $750 DCFC as un-resellable. A base Model 3 will therefore be worse than the black plague. People will laugh you out of town.


What's your source to the widely reported costs of the Model 3? I've not heard that. If anything, I've heard that they expect a 15% GPM on the base model 3 and 20+% with upgrades. Of course it's too soon to have any real numbers but the analysts that study these things for a living are expecting it to be on par with the 24.77% GPM that the Model S generates.

Only 6% of respondents are planning on buying the base model 3 which is available spring 18 so the TV news is correct. What's your point?

Again, what's your source that they MUST sell the auto pilot to see any profits?

Could you expand on how the Bolt without the DCFC being unsellable has anything to do with the Model 3 being the black plague? If you are claiming that the base Model 3 does not have DCFC, you would be mistaken. It comes supercharger enabled and expected to have 1000 miles/year free.

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oilerlord
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Re: Tesla Model 3 - Specs released

Wed Aug 02, 2017 4:34 am

gpsman wrote:It has been widely reported that the base model 3 ($35,000 MSRP) costs Tesla $41,000 to make.

This is like the Black Friday "loss leaders" to get you into the store, where you will most likely buy more stuff.

The TV news here in San Jose, CA, next door to Tesla headquarters is reporting, and rightly so, that very few, if any, Tesla Model 3's will be sold at $35,000.

If you insist on ordering one, your car will be a bottom priority, and you will get a very distant build date. Tesla has no incentive to sell this car to you, and every incentive NOT to.

They MUST sell the auto-pilot, etc. that costs $500 to manufacture, at $5000 to you, to get into the black.

P.S. Everyone here considers a Bolt without a $750 DCFC as un-resellable. A base Model 3 will therefore be worse than the black plague. People will laugh you out of town.


To be fair, it was also "widely reported" that the Bolt was losing $9,000 per car, but the loss was later adjusted to $7,400.

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/05/20/ub ... rofitable/

Read one of TSLA's 10Q filings. Unlike GM, Tesla is a growth play, not a company focused on profitability or otherwise concerned about being valued on a price/earnings metric (yet). It's all about growth, and putting up big numbers to support continued market confidence, and investment in Tesla. For that reason, Tesla has EVERY incentive to sell a car to you, or at least to book your order.

I get that you're a fan of the Bolt, and love your car, however to suggest a base Model 3 will be worse than the "black plague" is a little over the top.

Compared to a Bolt without the DCFC option - the base Model 3 still includes supercharging, and membership into that vast network of supercharging stations. Also, unlike the Bolt, there won't be thousands in inventory sitting unsold. There are 500,000+ pre-orders for the Model 3. Should someone opt not to buy their base Model 3 - and it suddenly becomes available - rest assured, Tesla won't have a problem selling it to someone else in the queue.
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elpwr
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Re: Tesla Model 3 - Specs released

Wed Aug 02, 2017 1:36 pm

There are lots of fully refundable reservations for Tesla Model 3. These are NOT the same as orders. When asked to pay the non-refundable $2500 order deposit we will see how many actually will buy the car. You can rest assured many of those reservations won't convert into actual sales.

There are already articles on cancelled reservation holders waiting several weeks for their refund. Bolt delivered right from the start on the advertised price while no $35K Model 3 will be available until next year.

Tesla Model X was supposed to have a 2 year wait when introduced, but only about 9 months after the slow introduction there were brand new Model X's in Tesla inventory ready and waiting for any buyer. Today there are 725 new Model X and 505 Model S in Tesla inventory waiting for buyers.

Don't be too surprised to find the wait for your Model 3 to be a lot shorter than anticipated.

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oilerlord
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Re: Tesla Model 3 - Specs released

Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:52 pm

elpwr wrote:There are lots of fully refundable reservations for Tesla Model 3. These are NOT the same as orders. When asked to pay the non-refundable $2500 order deposit we will see how many actually will buy the car. You can rest assured many of those reservations won't convert into actual sales.

There are already articles on cancelled reservation holders waiting several weeks for their refund. Bolt delivered right from the start on the advertised price while no $35K Model 3 will be available until next year.

Tesla Model X was supposed to have a 2 year wait when introduced, but only about 9 months after the slow introduction there were brand new Model X's in Tesla inventory ready and waiting for any buyer. Today there are 725 new Model X and 505 Model S in Tesla inventory waiting for buyers.

Don't be too surprised to find the wait for your Model 3 to be a lot shorter than anticipated.


It's a lot to ask someone to plunk down a sizable deposit and wait years for their car. But that's exactly what they are doing, and should tell you something. People are excited about the Model 3. They want this car, and up until recently, can actually afford to own a Tesla. Do you think even 5,000 people would have done back in 2014 with the Bolt? Not a chance. To me, $2500 isn't chump change, it's a serious commitment. Rest assured, most of those deposits will turn into orders.

It isn't fair to compare demand for a $100,000+ car that's only within reach of the few with a $35,000 car that's in reach of the many.
2014 Mercedes B-Class Electric Drive
2012 VW Jetta Sportwagen (not-so-clean-diesel) TDI
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Dgodfrey
Posts: 34
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2016 9:27 pm

Re: Tesla Model 3 - Specs released

Wed Aug 02, 2017 5:31 pm

elpwr wrote:There are lots of fully refundable reservations for Tesla Model 3. These are NOT the same as orders. When asked to pay the non-refundable $2500 order deposit we will see how many actually will buy the car. You can rest assured many of those reservations won't convert into actual sales.

There are already articles on cancelled reservation holders waiting several weeks for their refund. Bolt delivered right from the start on the advertised price while no $35K Model 3 will be available until next year.

Tesla Model X was supposed to have a 2 year wait when introduced, but only about 9 months after the slow introduction there were brand new Model X's in Tesla inventory ready and waiting for any buyer. Today there are 725 new Model X and 505 Model S in Tesla inventory waiting for buyers.

Don't be too surprised to find the wait for your Model 3 to be a lot shorter than anticipated.


Define "lots" of refundable reservations. 40?, 400?, 4,000? Let's go with 4k, so 1%?
No doubt, all reservations will not turn into orders but you really have no idea what that number really is. It's purely speculation on your part and to what end?
I also made a mistake on my earlier post in regards to the $35k base model 3 availability which addresses your comment above. Tesla claims that the base version will be available to configure this fall so a 60 day delay is nothing compared to the 18 months most of the reservationists have already waited.
Assuming your numbers on Tesla inventory are correct, and they sell 40k-50k/year, Bolt inventory is in the thousands and they are on track to sell 15k this year. Just one dealer alone has over 200. "Paul Masse Chevrolet in East Providence, Rhode Island, advertised on its website that it had more than 200 Bolts in inventory"
Also in regards to Darrens concerns over build quality, early reviews from pretty much all the major media gave it high marks in pretty much every category, including fit and finish. Time will tell.

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