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oilerlord
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Re: Charge and range estimate

Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:23 pm

No, and to quote Brian "I was talking more to the silent/casual observer and less to those who have shared numbers in this thread." Range estimate threads tend to morph into contests searching for the range king of the road. We tend to see a few of us minimizing the skill involved in driving 5.0+ miles/kWH in achieving those big range numbers. This does a disservice to the EV newbie who's driving along at 3.5 miles/kWh because they may actually believe there's something wrong with their car, and file a warranty claim.

I merely posted that while it's fun to hypermile and pursue personal best range records, there are consequences to cycling deep into the battery, and charging fully to 100% SOC on a regular basis. While that isn't specifically mentioned in the owner's manual, the Bolt's battery isn't immune to battery degradation. GM knows this, which is why the Bolt's battery warranty only covers fade below 60%. Since you're only driving the car for 36 months, It makes perfect sense that you (and perhaps the majority of people who lease) could care less about the long term health of the battery. Conversely, some of us (like Sean and I) own our EV's and plan to keep driving them well beyond 36 months. Given the replacement cost of a Bolt's battery pack is $15,734 some may recognize the value in taking steps to extend the battery's lifespan.
2014 Mercedes B-Class Electric Drive
2012 VW Jetta Sportwagen (not-so-clean-diesel) TDI
2008 BMW X3 3.0 "Beatrice"
2004 BMW 330Xi Sedan
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sgt1372
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Re: Charge and range estimate

Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:45 pm

oilerlord wrote:Given the replacement cost of a Bolt's battery pack is $15,734 some may recognize the value in taking steps to extend the battery's lifespan.


This is at least one reason why I'll never buy an EV (new or used).

In fact, it's actually the reason that I sold the Prius that I owned for 5 years. I didn't want to worry about the battery degradation/replacement issue. I leased one before but got a good deal on the 2nd one that I purchased new.

Another reason I that won't buy an EV is the likelihood of technological obsolescence. No telling what kind of advancements in battery technology that are coming up that will vastly increase the capacity of the batteries and the range of the cars.

On top of that is increasing competition between manufacturers in the EV market. I've read reports of at least 3-4 additional 200+ range models (beyond the Bolt and Model 3) planned for production w/in the next 3-5 years. There probably will be more.

Right now, I view EVs like mobile phones. Just buy them, keep them for a couple of years and then trade them in and replace them when new models come out. So, unless they come out w/a 20 year battery, I almost certainly will never buy one.
My vehicles:

2017 Chevy Bolt
2012 Mercedes ML350 4Matic
2008 BMW 335i
2002 Toyota MR2 Spyder
2002 Ford F250 7.3L 4x4 Longbed Turbodiesel

michaellax
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Re: Charge and range estimate

Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:49 pm

Keep it in the garage in the hopes of saving $163 per month!

However, the damage to the Bolt EVs battery pack is still speculative at this point because no one knows what steps GM has taken to protect it such as reserves.

Further the cost to replace the battery pack, if really needed, will certainly drop in 8 year!

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oilerlord
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Re: Charge and range estimate

Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:32 pm

sgt1372 wrote:
Another reason I that won't buy an EV is the likelihood of technological obsolescence. No telling what kind of advancements in battery technology that are coming up that will vastly increase the capacity of the batteries and the range of the cars.

On top of that is increasing competition between manufacturers in the EV market. I've read reports of at least 3-4 additional 200+ range models (beyond the Bolt and Model 3) planned for production w/in the next 3-5 years. There probably will be more.

Right now, I view EVs like mobile phones. Just buy them, keep them for a couple of years and then trade them in and replace them when new models come out. So, unless they come out w/a 20 year battery, I almost certainly will never buy one.


Makes perfect sense...but after 3 years, do you believe the Bolt will be obsolete - and if so, by what measure?

Lease returned EVs still have a lot of value. I'd argue MUCH more value than their 50% (or more) depreciation suggests they do. My formerly $51,000 Mercedes EV became a $23,000 "used" car with only 6000 miles on it. For less than the total cost of a 3-year lease - I own a nearly brand-new car, with no mileage restrictions, and no payments in perpetuity. When I'm ready to dump it for $3-5K, it will already have paid for itself.

It also makes sense to get last year's cell phone at $99 instead of paying $299 for the latest model (or in my case, saving a lot of money by not having a contract at all). There is no right or wrong, only the choice to accept financial burden of staying on the bleeding edge of technology - or not to.
2014 Mercedes B-Class Electric Drive
2012 VW Jetta Sportwagen (not-so-clean-diesel) TDI
2008 BMW X3 3.0 "Beatrice"
2004 BMW 330Xi Sedan
My 9.2kW DC Solar: https://easyview.auroravision.net/easyview/index.html?entityId=7466210

sgt1372
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Re: Charge and range estimate

Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:07 am

oilerlord wrote:Makes perfect sense...but after 3 years, do you believe the Bolt will be obsolete - and if so, by what measure?

Lease returned EVs still have a lot of value. I'd argue MUCH more value than their 50% (or more) depreciation suggests they do. My formerly $51,000 Mercedes EV became a $23,000 "used" car with only 6000 miles on it. For less than the total cost of a 3-year lease - I own a nearly brand-new car, with no mileage restrictions, and no payments in perpetuity. When I'm ready to dump it for $3-5K, it will already have paid for itself.

It also makes sense to get last year's cell phone at $99 instead of paying $299 for the latest model (or in my case, saving a lot of money by not having a contract at all). There is no right or wrong, only the choice to accept financial burden of staying on the bleeding edge of technology - or not to.


I don't think that the Bolt will be totally obsolete after 3 years but there should be a lot of other EV choices available then, including but not limited to the Tesla M3 and the 60kwh Leaf. I want to be free to choose another vehicle at that time, including the possibility of leasing a newer Bolt, w/o worrying about what the car will be worth then if I buy it and have to sell it or trade it in.

The resale/residual value of all EVs is a big unknown but it's almost certain that the closer you get to the end of the battery warranty period, the lower that value will have to go. The same applies w/any advance in technology. I just don't like the uncertainty involved in that and prefer to avoid that uncertainty when making a financial decision.

When I lease a car, my only concern is how much is the car going to cost me out of pocket month to month and over the life of the lease. The residual value of the car is known and already built into the amortization of lease at the time of signing. It's not an unknown factor yet to be determined at some time in the distant future.

My Bolt cost me $5k upfront less $3k in rebates for a net of $2k upfront plus $305/mo including sales tax. The total cost over the life of the lease is $12980 or $360.55/mo. The only question was whether I could afford this price and was willing/able to pay it. The answer to those questions was yes, so I leased it. There were no unknowns.

Like you, when I buy a car, I no longer buy new and now only buy used because I do not want to suffer the bulk of the depreciation which occurs w/in the 1st 5 years. When I buy a car, I also only buy it if I think that I will own it for 10 years or longer and assume that the car will be worthless (of course, it won't but I just assume it) when I finally decide to sell it. This takes depreciation out of the equation and makes the purchase essentially the same as a lease; just for a much longer term.

The last car I bought was my MB ML350. It was 5 years old and the original sticker price was $57k (plus tax & reg which was at least $6k more). I bought it for $25k (including tax & reg) and financed $22.5k of it. So, it only cost me $2.5k upfront. The payments are $302/mo (including interest) for 7 years and, if I do not payoff the loan in advance, my total cost will be $27,868 or $331.76/mo, which is also less than 50% of the original cost of the car. Like a lease, the total cost of the purchase is known to me, unless I payoff the loan early, in which case the cost will be less.

However unlike the Bolt, none of my ICE vehicles will "self-destruct" in 8-10 years and require the purchase/installation of a new EV battery at a cost of $15k or more. Each of them will continue to run indefinitely if cared for properly. In fact, my MR2 and Ford F250 are already 15 years old and the BMW is 9 years old. The MB is the newest at 5 years old but I expect to keep it as long as both the MR2 and Ford F250. The cost of maintenance of these cars will NEVER approach the cost of an EV battery replacement.

The fact the the value of the Bolt in 8 years cannot not be predicted and the fact that you have a known potential cost of $15k+ to replace the battery beyond 8 years, if you keep it that long, simply make the purchase of a Bolt an absolute no-go for me.

If I were to buy a Bolt and plan to keep it for 10 years or more, I would have to entirely discount the resale value of the car (as I do for my other cars) and add in the anticipated cost of a new EV battery to the purchase price and create an impound account to set aside $125/mo over 10 years for a total of $15k in anticipation of replacing the battery. Assuming I bought my Bolt for the $38k sticker price, this would raise the implied cost of the car to over $53k, which again would have made absolutely no sense to me.

BTW, I never buy new phones anymore either. The 1st iPhone that I bought new was the iPhone 4.; I was a late adopter. The next 2 that I bought -- the iPhone5 and Samsung S5 -- were used and are not tied to a cellular contract. The S5 is my current phone but I still have the iPhones; it wasn't worth selling them. I use the iPhone4 exclusively as an alarm clock and use the iPhone5 as an alternate wireless device to monitor email and texts that I leave in my bathroom.

In the end, I agree that we all have the right make individual choices about how to spend our money. I just don't think that buying an EV (any EV, whether new or used) is the "right" way to use mine.
Last edited by sgt1372 on Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:20 am, edited 2 times in total.
My vehicles:

2017 Chevy Bolt
2012 Mercedes ML350 4Matic
2008 BMW 335i
2002 Toyota MR2 Spyder
2002 Ford F250 7.3L 4x4 Longbed Turbodiesel

bluebolt
Posts: 24
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Re: Charge and range estimate

Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:46 am

oilerlord wrote:
sgt1372 wrote:
Another reason I that won't buy an EV is the likelihood of technological obsolescence. No telling what kind of advancements in battery technology that are coming up that will vastly increase the capacity of the batteries and the range of the cars.

On top of that is increasing competition between manufacturers in the EV market. I've read reports of at least 3-4 additional 200+ range models (beyond the Bolt and Model 3) planned for production w/in the next 3-5 years. There probably will be more.

Right now, I view EVs like mobile phones. Just buy them, keep them for a couple of years and then trade them in and replace them when new models come out. So, unless they come out w/a 20 year battery, I almost certainly will never buy one.


Makes perfect sense...but after 3 years, do you believe the Bolt will be obsolete - and if so, by what measure?

Lease returned EVs still have a lot of value. I'd argue MUCH more value than their 50% (or more) depreciation suggests they do. My formerly $51,000 Mercedes EV became a $23,000 "used" car with only 6000 miles on it. For less than the total cost of a 3-year lease - I own a nearly brand-new car, with no mileage restrictions, and no payments in perpetuity. When I'm ready to dump it for $3-5K, it will already have paid for itself.

It also makes sense to get last year's cell phone at $99 instead of paying $299 for the latest model (or in my case, saving a lot of money by not having a contract at all). There is no right or wrong, only the choice to accept financial burden of staying on the bleeding edge of technology - or not to.


Personally, I leased instead of purchasing because I'm guessing (and it's just a guess) that affordable battery capacity will increase in three years.

EVs are still new enough that their depreciation rates don't have much history to go on. The lack of clarity around depreciation is compounded by the transience of government incentives.

AAA claims that EV depreciation is higher than other classes of car (but does not include Tesla, so the results are skewed): newsroom.aaa.com/auto/your-driving-costs/

Autotrader claims that EV depreciation is not higher than other classes of car, and that reports of high depreciation are the indirect result of incentives: www.autotrader.com/car-news/why-do-electric-cars-lose-so-much-value-so-fast-265682

Car and Driver claims that EV depreciation is higher, and recommends that you "buy used or lease new": blog.caranddriver.com/evs-are-cheap-to-run-but-expensive-to-own-thanks-to-abysmal-resale-values/

The conclusion seems to be: no one knows how depreciation for EVs will play out over the next 3 years. So there's no concrete answer to the lease-versus-purchase decision. And anyway, the incentives right now are so good that the price is great regardless of whether you lease or buy.

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oilerlord
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Re: Charge and range estimate

Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:50 pm

sgt1372 wrote:
However unlike the Bolt, none of my ICE vehicles will "self-destruct" in 8-10 years and require the purchase/installation of a new EV battery at a cost of $15k or more. Each of them will continue to run indefinitely if cared for properly. In fact, my MR2 and Ford F250 are already 15 years old and the BMW is 9 years old. The MB is the newest at 5 years old but I expect to keep it as long as both the MR2 and Ford F250. The cost of maintenance of these cars will NEVER approach the cost of an EV battery replacement.

The fact the the value of the Bolt in 8 years cannot not be predicted and the fact that you have a known potential cost of $15k+ to replace the battery beyond 8 years, if you keep it that long, simply make the purchase of a Bolt an absolute no-go for me.

In the end, I agree that we all have the right make individual choices about how to spend our money. I just don't think that buying an EV (any EV, whether new or used) is the "right" way to use mine.


I'll admit that in the absence of a long service history track record, I jumped into the deep end of the pool buying my B250e. I'm betting that the overall inherent reliability of EV's will serve me well down the road, but who knows.

As for the Bolt "self destructing" in 8 years...I doubt it. There are a lot of guys on this board still driving their older Leafs without a problem (aside from battery fade). Worst case, the Bolt's battery is at 60% - which would still yield ~142 miles. That's still a ton for a commuter car...range that anyone driving an older Leaf would love to have.

In addition to the incentives adding to the depreciation of EVs, there is too much used EV supply for the small demand. Perhaps that demand (and used prices) will pick up once the general public figures out how great it is to drive electric. Selfishly, I hope that isn't the case...when the time comes to dump my EV, I'll be seriously considering an off-lease, low mileage $15,000 Bolt.
2014 Mercedes B-Class Electric Drive
2012 VW Jetta Sportwagen (not-so-clean-diesel) TDI
2008 BMW X3 3.0 "Beatrice"
2004 BMW 330Xi Sedan
My 9.2kW DC Solar: https://easyview.auroravision.net/easyview/index.html?entityId=7466210

sgt1372
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Re: Charge and range estimate

Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:16 am

oilerlord wrote:As for the Bolt "self destructing" in 8 years...I doubt it.


Of course, you know that I didn't mean this literally but battery degradation is still a potential financial risk and is something that needs to be considered on the front end before you buy an EV (or PHEV) whether new or used.
My vehicles:

2017 Chevy Bolt
2012 Mercedes ML350 4Matic
2008 BMW 335i
2002 Toyota MR2 Spyder
2002 Ford F250 7.3L 4x4 Longbed Turbodiesel

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oilerlord
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Re: Charge and range estimate

Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:46 am

I knew you were referring to battery degradation. GM believes (based on warranty coverage) that worst case, there should be at least 60% battery remaining after 8-years / 100K miles. I do too. Even at that point, having at least 142 miles of range (based on EPA 238) is a lot for basic commuting. The car probably loses >90% of its value by then, and with that many miles but I think it's still going to be a great car for someone - even if it is an "obsolete" 8-year old car.
2014 Mercedes B-Class Electric Drive
2012 VW Jetta Sportwagen (not-so-clean-diesel) TDI
2008 BMW X3 3.0 "Beatrice"
2004 BMW 330Xi Sedan
My 9.2kW DC Solar: https://easyview.auroravision.net/easyview/index.html?entityId=7466210

GetOffYourGas
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Re: Charge and range estimate

Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:20 am

To add to what oilerlord said...

The way you drive your Bolt, you don't drive much in a given day (what is it, up to about 25 miles IIRC?). And your efficiency is such that you're getting roughly 300 miles per charge. So after 8 years, worst case is 180 miles (60% of 300). So then you have to charge your car every 7 days instead of every 12. That's hardly "self destructing". I would think that the Bolt would fit your use pattern for two decades, if not more, on the original battery!

Of course, we don't know for sure. The battery could flat-out die after 10 years. And I don't fault you for leasing to hedge your bet against that case. But I am very comfortable with having purchased my Bolt, and others should be too without fear that their batteries with self-destruct after 8 years.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

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