The Mar 2017 EV Sales Numbers are in (978 Bolts)

[boltage]

Personally I think the Super Charger networks will be swamped by the new owners and long distance charging will be an ordeal. If Tesla is actually doubling or tripling the number of stalls at their SC locations then I'm proven wrong. But so far I don't see any signs of such a massive expansion. Tesla owners still talk of certain locations being swamped on holiday weekends. If that's the case now, imagine what it will be like in a year. So for me the equivalent of 'beating the market' may very well be the Bolt.

Tesla now charges money for using the Superchargers beyond the first 400 kWh per year that is free. Presumably, this should reduce the amount of "use the Supercharger whenever possible" behavior that seems to be common among earlier buyers who have free unlimited Supercharger use for the life of the vehicle.
https://www.tesla.com/support/supercharging

 

[SeanNelson]

Yeah, I think we can (somewhat) accurately assess demand for the Bolt. It's available in 8 states

It's a bit disingenuous to say that it's available in 8 states. First of all deliveries in all of those 8 states weren't scheduled to start until this month, which has no relevance to last month's sales figures. And even states which were supposed to receive Bolts last month, I've been reading posts from people who've pre-ordered long ago but are still waiting for delivery. Plus there's the fact that most NY residents would want to wait until April to take advantage of the new $2,000 incentive.

It's very annoying reading about surpluses in California when here in Canada all of the dealers' allocations have been spoken for well in advance and yet the rate of delivery seems to be something like one Bolt a week. And nobody can say when they're going to get more allocations.

There's some sort of geographic imbalance going on. Judgments are being made based on the situation in California while people in most other areas are frustrated by a lack of availability.

 

[oilerlord]

Sean, good catch...I stand corrected. Was not being disingenuous, just glanced at the second article noting the car is / will be shipping to eight states, An honest mistake, please accept my apology.

To be fair, and allowing the benefit of the doubt, perhaps we'll see sales numbers explode in April...well on the way to the estimated 80,000 sold in 2017.

http://www.businessinsider.com/2017-chevy-bolt-ev-sales-could-be-80k-2016-5

Based on Q1 sales numbers, I don't think that's going to happen, but we'll see. Let's put a pin in this until January, 2018.

 

[SparkEVPilot]

Personally I think the Super Charger networks will be swamped by the new owners and long distance charging will be an ordeal. If Tesla is actually doubling or tripling the number of stalls at their SC locations then I'm proven wrong. But so far I don't see any signs of such a massive expansion. Tesla owners still talk of certain locations being swamped on holiday weekends. If that's the case now, imagine what it will be like in a year. So for me the equivalent of 'beating the market' may very well be the Bolt.

Tesla now charges money for using the Superchargers beyond the first 400 kWh per year that is free. Presumably, this should reduce the amount of "use the Supercharger whenever possible" behavior that seems to be common among earlier buyers who have free unlimited Supercharger use for the life of the vehicle.
https://www.tesla.com/support/supercharging

Tesla does make a CHAdeMO adapter and sells it for $450.00. I believe this could be used at any DCFC location having a CHAdeMO charging option. It is possible we might start seeing Teslas occupying the Combo charging stations too.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

With all this discussion of GM hitting their 30k prediction - do we know whether that was US sales or worldwide? The car will continue to expand to new markets. It is already available in Canada. Certain European EV markets are hot right now. I still think there is a chance they could exceed 30k sales worldwide.

Nissan certainly didn't make it easy on them, though. There are reports on the Leaf forum of extremely cheap leases. One example, someone leased a 30kWh Leaf for $2k down / $99/mo for 36 months. It's hard to justify a $400+ payment for twice the battery if you don't need it.

 

[dandrewk]

Nissan certainly didn't make it easy on them, though. There are reports on the Leaf forum of extremely cheap leases. One example, someone leased a 30kWh Leaf for $2k down / $99/mo for 36 months. It's hard to justify a $400+ payment for twice the battery if you don't need it.

And yet, the Leaf only outsold the Bolt by 195 vehicles, YTD. This, in spite of the Leaf's dirt-cheap leases and nationwide availability.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

Nissan certainly didn't make it easy on them, though. There are reports on the Leaf forum of extremely cheap leases. One example, someone leased a 30kWh Leaf for $2k down / $99/mo for 36 months. It's hard to justify a $400+ payment for twice the battery if you don't need it.

And yet, the Leaf only outsold the Bolt by 195 vehicles, YTD. This, in spite of the Leaf's dirt-cheap leases and nationwide availability.

Yup. Not a strong market for EVs overall. Tesla is doing ok in their niche, we'll see if they can bring that level of success to the Model 3.

I was thinking more about the surge of Leaf sales in March. It seems that the Bolt may have taken a bite out of Leaf sales in January/February. But Nissan is not fighting back with cheaper lease deals than ever. It remains to be seen if they are just clearing inventory or if they are willing to pump them out of the factory and sell them on the cheap.

 

[ScooterCT]

I'm enough of an EV nerd to monitor Leaf inventory once a month on cars. com. Seems to be holding steady at around 1,500. When that number starts to really drop off, I'd assume it's an indication production has stopped and the new Leaf is on the way. Which is expected in late summer. I think Leaf sales are awesome, considering what it is. And I give a tip of the hat to Nissan for steadily pushing them out the door for 7 years now. Long before the LG (oops, GM) Bolt was even a gleam in the chief engineer's eyes.

By comparison, you can see Bolt inventory steadily creeping up (almost to 3,000 now). You'd kind of expect rising Bolt inventory to be matched with rising sales, but they seem decoupled. It's hard for me to accuse GM of limiting Bolt availability if the inventory is steadily rising. I'd say GM is doing their part to make it available to buyers. Slow but steady increase in availability. There just isn't a line outside the door demanding large numbers of Bolts (not counting Korea).

I wouldn't insult GM for not marketing the Bolt either. Why should they? You market cars and trucks you make real money on, like a Silverado or Yukon. And I don't think too many of us think GM is making much, if anything, on each Bolt sold.

 

[LeftieBiker]

When that number starts to really drop off, I'd assume it's an indication production has stopped and the new LEAF is on the way. Which is expected in late summer.

The car will be unveiled in September, but won't be delivered until around December. I can't believe I'll have to pre-order a new Leaf, after steadfastly refusing to even consider it with the Bolt. On the bright side, the "new" Leaf appears to be composed of at least half "old Leaf." ;-)

 

[GetOffYourGas]

By comparison, you can see Bolt inventory steadily creeping up (almost to 3,000 now). You'd kind of expect rising Bolt inventory to be matched with rising sales, but they seem decoupled. It's hard for me to accuse GM of limiting Bolt availability if the inventory is steadily rising. I'd say GM is doing their part to make it available to buyers. Slow but steady increase in availability. There just isn't a line outside the door demanding large numbers of Bolts (not counting Korea).

Interesting. That certainly doesn't look good for the Bolt. We may soon see even steeper discounts on the car.

At the same time, we know that the Bolt is still quite limited regionally. So I'd hesitate in reading too much into inventory numbers. Truth is, nobody knows what the demand is for an EV at this range/price because it has never been available before. For all we know, there is a yet-unreached market which has a need for a longer-range EV (e.g. a cold state with large distances between towns) and a very progressive population.

 

[Xelus]

Thinking April's sales should pick up, especially in New York. Seems like a no-brainer for consumers to hold off purchasing the bolt in March when you can wait a month and get the NY EV rebate of 2k which became effective April 1st.

 

[SeanNelson]

...perhaps we'll see sales numbers explode in April...well on the way to the estimated 80,000 sold in 2017.

I don't think we're going to see anywhere near 80,000. To me the real test will come next year when the Model 3 hype has coalesced into reality and people are forced to choose between two actual vehicles. Of course there will be other competitors coming onstream then too. And then there's the whole question of incentives and what the Feds are going to do. It'll be interesting, and I hope not too depressing, to watch.

 

[boltage]

Keep an eye on Volt sales. It is possible that the Bolt ends up being a halo car that brings people into the Chevrolet store, after which they leave with a Volt, in order to try EV without going all-in on EV.