Will 2017 LEAF be able to compete with Bolt EV?

[Rivu]

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

 

[SparkE]

Nissan also has much more real-world experience with BEVs than GM.

I disagree, because the Volt has been produced for about the same amount of time and it too is a BEV, albeit with a range extender. And GM has had a much better record with their batteries than Nissan, despite the fact that Volt owners regularly go through cycles of completely discharging the battery to "empty" (as much as the car's software allows) and then charging it back up again to "full" (same caveat). With over 100,000 Volts produced, GM has never had to replace a battery due to wearout or reduced capacity. To me that speaks of how conservative GM has been with its designs, and it bodes well for the Bolt.

I disagree w/ the bolded. The Bolt is a BEV (as is the LEAF), the Volt is a PHEV.

But I totally agree with the comments in Italic. The LEAF's lack of an active thermal management system has shown to be a mistake. GM's active thermal management system in both the Volt and the Spark has shown its worth. I expect that one of the reasons that the Bolt has a 60-ish kWh battery pack is because not all of it us "usable" with the bottom and top 3% (or so) never used in order to 'baby' the battery, to disallow a full (capacity) charge or a full discharge by the user. But that is pure speculation on my part.

 

[SeanNelson]

Nissan also has much more real-world experience with BEVs than GM.

I disagree, because the Volt has been produced for about the same amount of time and it too is a BEV, albeit with a range extender.

I disagree w/ the bolded. The Bolt is a BEV (as is the LEAF), the Volt is a PHEV.

The Volt is quite a different beast than "PHEV" vehicles such as the Prius Plug-In. It has a battery pack that's closer in size to the Leaf and it has a more powerful electric motor than the Leaf. It can accelerate and cruise at full performance and maximum speed without ever starting the gas engine. It's functionally a BEV with an added gas engine - that's why many Volt owners drive their cars for thousands of miles without ever having to use any gas. No other PHEVs can currently do that.

While people often saddle it with the "PHEV" label, that really doesn't do it justice IMHO.

 

[sam]

The 2017 LEAF is a good competitor I have to admit

 

[SparkE]

I disagree, because the Volt has been produced for about the same amount of time and it too is a BEV, albeit with a range extender.

I disagree w/ the bolded. The Bolt is a BEV (as is the LEAF), the Volt is a PHEV.

The Volt is quite a different beast than "PHEV" vehicles such as the Prius Plug-In. It has a battery pack that's closer in size to the Leaf and it has a more powerful electric motor than the Leaf. It can accelerate and cruise at full performance and maximum speed without ever starting the gas engine. It's functionally a BEV with an added gas engine - that's why many Volt owners drive their cars for thousands of miles without ever having to use any gas. No other PHEVs can currently do that.

While people often saddle it with the "PHEV" label, that really doesn't do it justice IMHO.

While the Volt is different from the Prius, it is still a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV).

 

[GetOffYourGas]

While the Volt is different from the Prius, it is still a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV).

Technically you are absolutely correct. However, you are not going to convince any Volt fans to call it that, due to its implications. Right or wrong, that's just the way it is. However, it is absolutely not correct to call the Volt a BEV. In the common usage that is reserved only for cars without any gas tank at all - like the Bolt and the Leaf.

A common term for the Volt is an EREV - Extended Range Electric Vehicle. I am fine with this term, as it is clear that it has a hybrid component (even if it is almost exclusively used to generate electricity, it's still a hybrid of gas and electric). To call the Volt a BEV is wrong and misleading.

What started this discussion was a response to my statement that Nissan has more experience with building and selling BEVs than Chevy. The difference between a BEV and EREV is very important. The Volt can baby its battery more because of the backup - it doesn't need to rely on battery alone to get you home for example. So in extreme conditions, it can switch to charge sustaining ("hybrid", if you will) mode. Also marketing and selling an EREV is nominally easier than a BEV. The car is simply more robust because of its longer range and faster refueling.

And then there is this:

http://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-opens-worlds-top-5-selling-plug-cars-tesla-model-s-second/

Regardless of what you call the Volt, Nissan has built and sold almost twice as many Leafs as Chevy has Volts. So yeah, Nissan has more experience. Time will tell what they have learned from that, and if it's more than Chevy has learned from less experience.

 

[SeanNelson]

Technically you are absolutely correct. However, you are not going to convince any Volt fans to call it that, due to its implications. Right or wrong, that's just the way it is. However, it is absolutely not correct to call the Volt a BEV.

I would like to point out that the original claim was that nobody had the same experience building BEVs as Nissan. My point was that GM has equivalent experience because the Volt, while not technically a BEV, has all of the components of a BEV (and even more).

Also, while it's technically a "PHEV" I feel the label doesn't adequately distinguish it's unique characteristics from other PHEVs. It would be rather akin to claiming that a Tesla is a "car". Technically correct, but misleading.

 

[SparkE]

Technically you are absolutely correct. However, you are not going to convince any Volt fans to call it that, due to its implications. Right or wrong, that's just the way it is. However, it is absolutely not correct to call the Volt a BEV.

I would like to point out that the original claim was that nobody had the same experience building BEVs as Nissan. My point was that GM has equivalent experience because the Volt, while not technically a BEV, has all of the components of a BEV (and even more).

Also, while it's technically a "PHEV" I feel the label doesn't adequately distinguish it's unique characteristics from other PHEVs. It would be rather akin to claiming that a Tesla is a "car". Technically correct, but misleading.

And, as pointed out in the post previous to yours, Twice as many LEAFS have been sold as Volts, even if you ignore the obvious fact that EREVs are very different beasts from BEVs. So ... nobody had the same experience building BEVs as Nissan . QED.

 

[SeanNelson]

And, as pointed out in the post previous to yours, Twice as many LEAFS have been sold as Volts, even if you ignore the obvious fact that EREVs are very different beasts from BEVs. So ... nobody had the same experience building BEVs as Nissan . QED.

Well Chevy hasn't had the same experience with battery issues, I'll give you that.

 

[Aidan]

Unless the Leaf comes up with a great range like the 238 announced today for the Bolt I'm not sure they will compete fiercely

 

[GetOffYourGas]

I have to admit, I'm less certain that Nissan will be able to compete than I was two days ago. 238 miles is downright impressive. I wouldn't be surprised if they actually delayed the next generation Leaf just to give themselves time to catch up.

So given the new information, my prediction is -

2017 Leaf will not touch 2017 Bolt in performance or range, but instead will undercut it in price, and outdo it in availability. Still, I expect the 2017 Bolt to outsell the 2017 Leaf wherever the Bolt is available. Worldwide, the Leaf may still win.

2018 Leaf will compete with 2018 Bolt in performance and range. But only for the highest trim level, and they may not be able to match the price (given the killer deal GM negotiated with LG Chem). The lower trim Leaf will undercut in price, but will fall short in performance and range. The 2018 Leaf may be good enough to wrestle back some market share from GM. More importantly, the two together along with the Tesla Model III will dramatically increase the overall market size for BEVs.

 

[SeanNelson]

2017 Leaf will not touch 2017 Bolt in performance or range, but instead will undercut it in price, and outdo it in availability.

That's going to depend a whole lot on how much of a price cut they need in order to attract buyers. If it requires them to take a loss on every vehicle sold or if the price they decide to sell at isn't that attractive then you may not see all that much availability. It's going to be interesting to see how this shakes out, not just for Nissan but for the other EV manufacturers as well.

More importantly, the two together along with the Tesla Model III will dramatically increase the overall market size for BEVs.

Yes, that's the good news story - the competition is really going to advance the state of the industry.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

2017 Leaf will not touch 2017 Bolt in performance or range, but instead will undercut it in price, and outdo it in availability.

That's going to depend a whole lot on how much of a price cut they need in order to attract buyers. If it requires them to take a loss on every vehicle sold or if the price they decide to sell at isn't that attractive then you may not see all that much availability. It's going to be interesting to see how this shakes out, not just for Nissan but for the other EV manufacturers as well.

Yes, I see your point. If we take GM at their word, they should be able to build 80k Bolts if they want to. And they are rolling them out not just nationwide in the US, but also worldwide. Nissan has an established manufacturing base, but if they have to drop the price so low that they are losing money for each car, they may lose their appetite for market share. At which point they may just cede the market to GM until they can get the Leaf 2.0 out, presumably as a 2018 model.