oilerlord
Well-known member
Robaroni said:
Because that's question this thread is asking. Answer: The Bolt will not be a game changer.
Will the Chevy Bolt EV be a 'game changer'?
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Because that's question this thread is asking. Answer: The Bolt will not be a game changer.
WetEV
Well-known member
oilerlord said:
A single EV will not take over 20% of the market.
Best selling EV in history is the Nissan Leaf, with over 200,000 sold to date world wide.
If Bolt manages 2,000,000 over the next 6 years, it would have changed the game. Still not even close to 20%. Or close to the 40,000,000 Toyota Corolla sales.
oilerlord
Well-known member
WetEV said:
2,000,000 / 6 years = 333,333 per year. Not likely. In 2015, Tesla was the highest volume EV manufacturer - and even they only managed to ship just north of 50,000 Model S and Model X units combined. Even 2M units over 6 years will be a challenge for the Model 3, but unlike that car, there isn't any hype or excitement about the Bolt that could possibly make it happen.
WetEV
Well-known member
oilerlord said:
...yet.
oilerlord said:
I don't understand the logic. in 2014, 100% of the cars sold by Tesla were electric. So what?
According to an article in the Wall Street Journal, between 4800 and 9500 Diesel cars were sold each month in the US, before the VW scandal. Now very few are sold
According to stats in Insides EVs, monthly sales of battery electric vehicles are in that same range. If you add in other plug in cars, the numbers are much higher, over 10,000 a month
So maybe it's EVs that are mainstream, and Diesels that are no longer
oilerlord
Well-known member
michael said:
I used VW as an example. VW put a lot of marketing behind TDI, and somehow made diesel "hip" - to the point that diesels became 20% of VW's annual sales. An amazing accomplishment. Comparatively, I'm not sure that GM will be able to accomplish that with their EV division - or even if it's worth it to them to do so. I still believe the biggest reason they are building the Bolt is to pick up ZEV credits, and comply with CAFE - so they can continue to sell their profitable trucks and SUV's. Tesla is a growth play that could care less about profitability. GM isn't.
But hey, who knows. Perhaps GM will surprise and the Bolt and it's new EV platform will become a springboard to become a household name like VW did with TDI.
oilerlord said:
GM might be testing the market to see how EVs sell. I read that OPEC is cutting production, personally I'm interested in seeing how that effects EVs and PHEVs.
VW's claim was that diesels were a better option than hybrids, getting about the same mileage without the complexity of hybrids. I used to think there was merit to the statement but now I think the Volt as a platform is a better option even though it is more complex. Technology has changed the equation, as I've said before, it always will.
The ICE, fossil fuels and even nuclear are dated technologies, there will be a time when you have to plan your trips plotting gas station locations, watch what happens!
oilerlord
Well-known member
Robaroni said:
Huh?
You mention that GM may be testing the EV market to see how they sell, but also tell me to "watch what happens" because, apparently, I'll be plotting my gas station trips. Only a global, catastrophic event could cause that to happen and if it does, we'll have bigger problems to deal with than trip planning.
I share your enthusiasm for the future of EV's, but let's keep it real.
I guess "Game Changer" depends on how you define the "Game"
EV Sales? Game Changer
Total Vehicle Sales? Probably not, but only time will tell. If the Bolt can become to EV's what the Prius was for hybrids - yes.
Quality of Life for the entire planet. Not likely. When EV's outsell ICE vehicle, that one likely belongs to Tesla.
And game changer is not singular, there have been many, and will be more - some are bigger than others.
The Bolt has already caused other manufacturers to delay and/or accelerate the release of new EV's, caused them to chnage the specs of those vehicles, and will put incredible proce pressure on everything currently on the market (Tesla has already reacted with the $8500 discount on the Model S 75 to create the S 60 - a software change does not "save" them $8500), I consider that a game changer. Is it on the magnitude of the Model T assembly line - no. CARB requiring unleaded gas/catalytic converters - no.
NeilBlanchard
Well-known member
Since the Chevy Bolt EV has almost 3X the range - at the same price level of currently available EV's - it WILL BE a game changer.
That is the definition of a game changer.
If the next gen Prius got 100MPG - that would be a game changer, too. The Bolt EV gets 124MPGe.
That is the definition of a game changer.
If the next gen Prius got 100MPG - that would be a game changer, too. The Bolt EV gets 124MPGe.
oilerlord said:
First, I'm not GM, when they speculate they have to put money down, well actually I did, I own Tesla stock. I think it is realistic that at some point in the future gas stations will be obsolete. If you told people in 1975 that typewriters would be obsolete in 20 years many would strongly disagree. I did tell people in the early 80's that we would see a time when telephones would be portable and many people would use portable phones as their only phone. I was working for a company at the time called Nynex and many people laughed, today that company is called Verizon. I remember people telling me 10 years ago PV modules would never go below a dollar a watt, should I keep going on?
SparkE
Well-known member
Robaroni said:
Based on your examples, I have at least 30 years before a scarcity of gas stations might be a concern. I won't be worrying about it any time soon.
SparkE said:
Do you think 1996 was a long time ago? I'm over 70, I think it was yesterday! Did you have a cell phone 20 years ago? There were no large screen TVs, no LED monitors, no electric car companies, no charging stations, no LED lighting, no Google, no eBay and no Paypal. Twenty five years ago there was no internet. When I was a kid we had no dial on our phone, we picked up the handset and got an operator... I lived 20 miles from NYC.
Tell me what the world will be like in 15 or 20 years. Personally I think as Climate Change keeps getting worse and worse and people become more worried about everyday life things will change really fast. What's going to save us? Fossil fuel? Wars to defend corporate oil interests in foreign countries? I think Elon Musk is right and I think the world is going to change very fast. Right now several countries around the globe want to be fully solar by 2025, that's less than ten years. I already make more energy then I use, not only don't I have an electric bill, they owe me money and that's today. In less than 3 years I won't need any fossil fuel!
SparkE
Well-known member
Robaroni said:
In 1996:
- I had a cell phone - a Motorola flip phone that I carried around with me.
- I had a large-screen TV (it was a projection set, but it was about 70" across)
- I used a computer with either an LCD or LED monitor (not sure which, actually)
- my brother drove an electric car (yes, it was a converted gas VW bug, but it was electric)
- there was *definitely* an internet in 1996 (I've been using it since 1982, and it existed before that)
- just because you lived in a place with no dial phone service doesn't mean it wasn't generally available in the 1940s and 50s (My dad's number was BEacon 4357).
I still think I have 30 years (or more) before I have to start worrying about it being difficult to find a gas station.
SparkE said:
That large screen TV wasn't LED, projection TVs were horrible and cost several times what an LED costs. I said there were "no electric car companies", not that there were no guys in their backyards using Lead/acid batteries in homemade electrics, and how far did your brother's car car go on a charge?
25 years ago the internet opened to the public before then it was strictly military:
http://venturebeat.com/2016/08/23/happy-internaut-day-25-years-ago-today-the-world-wide-web-opened-to-the-public/
"Samsung first debuted its line of LED TV's back in 2007. In 2009, the company sold 350,000 LED TV's in the first 10 weeks!" You didn't have one in 1996!
http://www.pcworld.com/article/209224/displays/historic-monitors-slideshow.html#slide19
"Early Desktop LCDs
Computer companies had experimented with desktop LCD monitors since the 1980s in small numbers, but those monitors tended to cost a lot and offer horrible performance in comparison with the more prevalent CRTs. That changed around 1997, when a number of vendors such as ViewSonic (left), IBM (center), and Apple (right) introduced color LCD monitors with qualities that could finally begin to compete with CRT monitors at a reasonable price. These LCDs used less desk space, consumed less electricity, and generated far less heat than CRTs, which made them attractive to early adopters."
"but those monitors tended to cost a lot and offer horrible performance", that's what you had in 1996, Oh, and your brothers golf cart battery powered homemade electric car.
And here's my electric usage for the last year, seeing as you're a cutting edge guy I'm sure you were clever enough to put in your own system and have your electric company pay you every month too. And, once more, in less than 3 years I won't ever need fossil fuel again, now tell me what the world will be like in 30 years.
GetOffYourGas
Well-known member
mark111 said:
In 1996, I was just starting my freshman year of High School. At that time, I was reading about the EV1. I was sure that by the time I bought my first car, it would be 100% electric, and could travel as freely as a gas car. While things didn't pan out as I had hoped, it's more of a delayed dream than a failed one. Certainly my next car will get me there, whether it's a Bolt, a Model III, or sometime not-yet-announced.
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