DucRider
Posts: 597
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:25 pm

Re: Need help with leasing numbers in the bay area

Tue Jul 31, 2018 2:37 pm

SparkE wrote:There *might* be deals available in late 2018, after (if) the 2019 model year is available in the last few months of 2018 AND there are still 2018s available. That happened in the beginning of 2018 when all the remaining 2017s got discounted once the 2018s started shipping.

Disadvantage : you have to chose from what's still available.

The 2017 MY was also different in that it received more ZEV credits and those credits traveled to and from other Section 177 States with no penalties or discounts. ZEV credits have value (as Tesla knows very well) and GM was willing to put some cash on the hood to stockpile some credits.

It is also possible that GM is restricting supply to delay the 200K trigger for the sunset of the Federal Tax Credit.
Gary

2014 Honda Fit EV - lease ends Jan 2019

winterescape
Posts: 158
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 1:35 pm
Location: Upstate, NY

Re: Need help with leasing numbers in the bay area

Wed Aug 01, 2018 4:57 pm

DucRider wrote:
It is also possible that GM is restricting supply to delay the 200K trigger for the sunset of the Federal Tax Credit.


My money is on this, ship more Bolts worldwide rather than domestically, ramp up supply of 2019s, delay loss of Ferderal Tax credit

SparkE
Moderator
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Location: SF Bay Area

Re: Need help with leasing numbers in the bay area

Wed Aug 01, 2018 6:22 pm

Yeah, they already flooded Korea with Bolts this year (until their tax break numbers were exceeded), and it shouldn't be too hard to make it to Oct 1st without hitting the limit, but getting to Jan 1, 2019 is going to be a challenge (Volts count in the total as well).

So there might be a flood of deals in 4th quarter 2018.

Campfamily
Posts: 27
Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:19 pm

Re: Need help with leasing numbers in the bay area

Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:34 pm

SparkE wrote:Yeah, they already flooded Korea with Bolts this year (until their tax break numbers were exceeded), and it shouldn't be too hard to make it to Oct 1st without hitting the limit, but getting to Jan 1, 2019 is going to be a challenge (Volts count in the total as well).

So there might be a flood of deals in 4th quarter 2018.


In early 2019 there will also be a bunch more competition for the Bolt, with the extended range Leaf and the Hyundai Kona. Right now Chevy has the >200 mile affordable EV market to themselves, but that's going to change here soon.
SOLD Ford Focus Electric Owner (since May 2015, 38,000+ miles)
WAS CONSIDERING Chevy Bolt
CURRENT Tesla Model 3 LR RWD

winterescape
Posts: 158
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 1:35 pm
Location: Upstate, NY

Re: Need help with leasing numbers in the bay area

Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:55 pm

Campfamily wrote: In early 2019 there will also be a bunch more competition for the Bolt, with the extended range Leaf and the Hyundai Kona. Right now Chevy has the >200 mile affordable EV market to themselves, but that's going to change here soon.


True, but also by mid '19 GM should have two new BEV's launched. (GM, Oct 2017, "within 18 months")
My guess is a Buick Enspire and a Chevy Joule?

tgreene
Posts: 90
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:43 am

Re: Need help with leasing numbers in the bay area

Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:05 pm

winterescape wrote:True, but also by mid '19 GM should have two new BEV's launched. (GM, Oct 2017, "within 18 months")
My guess is a Buick Enspire and a Chevy Joule?



Ah, but did GM specify the market for those new EVs? There has been zero information on them, so they may only be sold in China. That is the real EV market.

BarfOMatic
Posts: 59
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:03 am
Location: Santa Clara, CA

Re: Need help with leasing numbers in the bay area

Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:21 pm

Campfamily wrote:
SparkE wrote:Yeah, they already flooded Korea with Bolts this year (until their tax break numbers were exceeded), and it shouldn't be too hard to make it to Oct 1st without hitting the limit, but getting to Jan 1, 2019 is going to be a challenge (Volts count in the total as well).

So there might be a flood of deals in 4th quarter 2018.


In early 2019 there will also be a bunch more competition for the Bolt, with the extended range Leaf and the Hyundai Kona. Right now Chevy has the >200 mile affordable EV market to themselves, but that's going to change here soon.


Yup, and logically enough, they are trying to get as much money out of the Bolt while they can (no deals while the competition is thin). At the moment, the Bolt is the ONLY 220+ mile BEV that you can buy for under $42K, and as little as $38K (the model 3s that are being sold today must be configured with the extended range battery, and start at over $45K).

Also, when the newer (longer range) LEAF2 and the BEV Kona arrive, GM will still be selling the Bolt with a $7500 tax credit, so still competitive (unlike the model 3, which will only be eligible for $3750 or lower in 2019). The Kona (definitely) will have a long run with the $7500 fed tax credit (in the U.S.), while the LEAF will start losing it at about the same time as the Bolt (if not earlier) - so, again, staying competetive (as long as possible).

It makes perfect sense to me - fill your pockets while you can, and stay 'in the ballpark' with the competition.

Campfamily
Posts: 27
Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:19 pm

Re: Need help with leasing numbers in the bay area

Thu Aug 02, 2018 1:46 pm

BarfOMatic wrote:It makes perfect sense to me - fill your pockets while you can, and stay 'in the ballpark' with the competition.


Exactly.....and the reason why I'll be sitting it out until late 18 / early 19, when the desire to upgrade to a longer range EV will be higher, due to expiration of carpool lane access on my current EV.

Keith
SOLD Ford Focus Electric Owner (since May 2015, 38,000+ miles)
WAS CONSIDERING Chevy Bolt
CURRENT Tesla Model 3 LR RWD

Sperling3
Posts: 32
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:14 pm

Re: Need help with leasing numbers in the bay area

Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:13 pm

Are you guys having the same problem with this forum as I? When I click on "Need help with leasing numbers in the bay area", I seem to pull up a discussion about what new GM EV models will be coming out in 2019. :)

BarfOMatic
Posts: 59
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:03 am
Location: Santa Clara, CA

Re: Need help with leasing numbers in the bay area

Sat Aug 25, 2018 6:40 am

BarfOMatic wrote:
It makes perfect sense to me - fill your pockets while you can, and stay 'in the ballpark' with the competition.


Speaking of "the competition" to the Bolt in the US - at the moment, it's only Tesla and the Nissan LEAF (and maybe the BMW i3). I'm basing that conclusion off of sales volume of battery-only EVs. The Tesla models and the LEAF are the ONLY vehicles that are selling over 1000 units a month on a regular basis. Heck, those are the only ones selling over *300* units a month! (It's hard to tell with the i3, as the BEV and REx sales are lumped together into one number.) The next BEV by sales volume is (... drum roll ...) the Fiat 500e !!

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

So, at the moment, only 3 companies are serious about selling battery-powered vehicles. This might change over the next 18 months or so (depending on how many vehicles the other companies actually produce, even after they are theoretically available - the Hyundai IONIQ EV sold only in token quantities, and that only in Calif). So it isn't surprising that it is difficult to find good lease deals at the moment - Nissan and Chevy are the only companies actually shipping BEVs under $40K in volume (you can't touch a Tesla model 3 for under $50K at the moment - but that should change over the next quarter or two).

So ... Chevy is filling their pockets while they can, and probably will until there is more competition (and/or they go past 200K EV sales in the US, at which point they may open the floodgates a bit).

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